Wing Commander Pravinkumar Padalkar

Geopolitical uncertainty is unavoidable. Market volatility is inevitable. The role of the investor is not to predict how events will unfold, but to remain aligned with intent, process, and time despite not knowing. What separates outcomes is not events, but overreaction, weak structure, and emotional decision-making. Investors who succeed over long periods are not those who predict events correctly. They are those who accept uncertainty, build resilient portfolios, and remain disciplined.

As a small-cap fund grows larger: Liquidity constraints increase Positions must be smaller Portfolios become more diversified Cash levels often rise Risk management starts taking priority over conviction. These are rational responses to scale, not mistakes. But they do change what the fund can realistically deliver.

However, once a stock is selected and capital is committed, the nature of the problem changes fundamentally. From that point on, the stock price is driven by forces far beyond any single model, forecast, or thesis. Once a stock enters your portfolio, certainty disappears. You never really know where the stock price will move next. From that point onward, the investor is no longer solving for an outcome, but estimating the distribution of possible outcomes. The realised stock price becomes the