Anything Can Go Wrong Anytime

When I was posted at Air Force Station Hindan, I used to play golf regularly. New learners including a few officers and ladies used to practice on and around the putting green. On that eventful morning, the scene at the golf course was heavenly. The sun was just rising. A cool breeze was blowing. The birds were chirping. Lush greens on the course were pleasing to the eyes. Nature was at its best. The energy and the positivity were at a peak. We were waiting to tee off. An officer near a putting green was trying his hand. He swung the golf club, and the club stroke the ball perfectly, the ball flew furiously and hit on the head of a lady. She instantly collapsed on the green. Everyone rushed for help. In a splash of the moment, the blissful morning turned somber.

Anything can go wrong at any time! These are “unknown unknowns.”

I am sure you also must have experienced such moments in your life. Out of the blue, something goes wrong and our life takes a different turn. At times, it changes the entire course of life. We never imagined that such things can happen to us. We get caught off guard. This is what is called “an unknown unknown risk.”

These are the type of risks that are impossible to predict. Hence, it is very difficult to mitigate them. In hindsight, we can only learn a few valuable lessons from them. We can look in the rearview mirror and say,” Oh! That also can happen!” 09/11 attack in the USA, Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukrain war are a few examples of unknown unknown risks.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a mathematician, an epistemologist, a hedge fund manager, and an author of many books. In his book “Fooled By Randomness” he coined the term “Black Swan Event.” A black swan event is similar to unknown unknowns but has the rarest of the rare probability of occurrence and when it occurs, it can create catastrophic effects.

Just like in life, the market too suffers from unknown unknown risks. We experienced the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. The Yes Bank debacle is fresh in our minds. The Adani issue is still haunting us. The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse in the USA is a recent example. In fact, the market is more susceptible to unknown unknown risks than real life.

The market is always driven by sentiments. Hence, these unknown unknowns have a major role to play in creating temporary ripples in the market. However, if we can apply spiritual wisdom to market events, things get smoothed out quickly. Eventually, everything falls into place.

How to mitigate unknown unknown risks?

Mitigating this type of risk is just not possible. However, if we make “Anything Can Go Wrong Anytime” a philosophy of life then there is a probability that we may get less affected by these instances. By mentally preparing our minds, we can reduce the after-shock effect, if not eliminate it.

These are the risks, which we cannot do anything about. When they strike, we have to just look at them, experience them, take corrective measures, learn from them, and move on. There is nothing more we can do about them. Whenever such instances used to happen, one of my friend's wise old father used to say, “Just keep observing, keep doing your daily chores, and move on … that’s all is in our hands.”

The same philosophy is taught in Vipasaana. Long ago, I did a Vipassana meditation course at their headquarters based in Igatpuri, near Nashik. Vipassana means to see things as they are. Initially, for a few days, they teach you to just observe your breath. How the breath comes in and how it goes out. Throughout the day, you are doing the same thing again and again. Just observe and not do anything. It is this inner observation that helps you to build self-awareness.

And once you have achieved this state of self-awareness, no external force can harm you. You have almost arrived!!!

The enlightened Buddha said, "If I had even a slight awareness, and practiced the Great Way, what I would fear would be deviating from it."