“I may do it, I may not do it… Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

“I may do it, I may not do it… Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

– Donald Trump, on the Iran-Israel conflict.

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This isn’t mere political theatre. It’s a real-time demonstration of how uncertainty governs markets.

As investors, we’re wired to seek clarity and control. But markets don’t run on certainty. They run on expectations, probabilities, and perception.

Contrary to traditional models, financial markets don’t behave like predictable, linear systems that turn clean data into rational outcomes.

They act more like complex adaptive systems, dynamic and constantly evolving, shaped by the interaction of different types of investors, algorithms, and changing global narratives.

At the heart of it all are human biases like fear, overconfidence, and herd mentality, which make market behavior unpredictable and often irrational.

Prices don’t move solely on fundamentals. They move based on how millions of participants perceive the future and how they position themselves around what could happen.

So when Trump says, “Nobody knows what I’m going to do,” the market doesn’t wait for clarity; it recalibrates.

Uncertainty goes up. Risk premiums rise. Probabilities get reassessed.

Markets rarely react to events in isolation.

They move in response to how those events are anticipated, priced in, and emotionally processed.

Investing Is Not About Certainty. It’s About Probability.

Investing is decision-making under uncertainty.

Great investors don’t ask, “What will happen?”

They ask, “What is likely to happen, and what’s the payoff if I’m right or wrong?”

That’s the core of probability-based investing:

You’re never sure.
You’re never guaranteed a win.
But if you position intelligently, you win more when right and lose less when wrong.

This isn’t gambling. It’s intelligent risk management, the same mindset used in war, aviation, and business.

So, How Do You Face the Stock Market Battle?

Welcome to the Fog of War, where decisions must be made with imperfect information, under pressure, and with real consequences.

Here’s how disciplined investors navigate it:

Stop Seeking Certainty.

Waiting for a “clear picture” is a trap.
By the time it’s clear, the opportunity is gone.
Build Portfolios That Withstand Shocks.

Geopolitical events like Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine can’t be timed.
Your portfolio must be shock-absorbent, not shock-reactive.
Follow Process, Not Prediction.

Prediction is fragile.
Process is resilient.
Stick to asset allocation, risk control, and long-term thinking.
Think in Probabilities.

Every investment is a bet with asymmetric outcomes.
The goal is not to avoid risk but to take smart risks.

Markets are uncertain. Always have been. Always will be.

But your investment discipline doesn't have to be. It’s not about predicting the storm. It’s about learning to fly through it, with courage and control.

As a former Air Force officer, I learned this early: You can't control the war, the weather, or the enemy.

But you can control your training, preparation, emotion, and judgment under fire.

The market is no different.

You can’t control Trump.

You can’t control war.

But you can control your mindset, your strategy, and your risk.

And that’s the difference between wealth creation and wealth destruction.