The Engineer’s Curse

Engineers are trained to solve problems.

Given enough data, enough logic, and enough effort, there is a right answer.

Systems behave predictably.

Inputs lead to outputs.

Precision is rewarded.

In engineering, this belief is not only useful but also essential.

However, when engineers enter the stock market, this very strength often becomes a liability.

This is what I call the engineer’s curse.

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The Illusion

Most engineers approach markets the way they approach machines.

They believe:

• More analysis will reduce uncertainty

• Better models will improve outcomes

• Intelligence will translate into superior returns

So they build algos, run scenarios, track ratios, and constantly refine assumptions.

Yet markets refuse to cooperate.

• Despite deep analysis, results remain inconsistent.

• Despite correct logic, prices behave irrationally.

• Despite effort, outcomes feel random.

This creates frustration, not because engineers lack skill, but because the system they are dealing with is fundamentally different.

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Markets Are Not Engineering Systems

Engineering systems are closed systems. Markets are open, adaptive, human systems.

In markets:

• Participants react to each other.

• Emotions influence decisions.

• Information is incomplete and unevenly interpreted.

• Outcomes depend on behavior, not equations.

Engineers instinctively optimize.

They try to:

• Read charts and buy at the perfect price

• Time entries and exits

• Improve returns by tweaking allocation

• Reduce volatility through constant adjustment

But markets punish over-optimization.

Each additional decision introduces:

• Behavioral errors

• Emotional interference

• Timing risk

In investing, simplicity often outperforms sophistication.

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Successful investing requires a mindset shift.

From:

“How do I solve this?”

To:

“How do I stay invested while outcomes unfold over time?”

Full-time investing taught me that markets are not about solving puzzles. They are about managing uncertainty over long periods.

The key skills are not complex modelling, calculations or forecasting, but:

• Patience

• Emotional control

• Acceptance of not knowing

• The ability to do nothing

These skills are rarely taught in engineering schools.

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The Market Respects Humility

The best investors I know, engineers included, eventually unlearn one habit:

The need to be right.

They stop predicting. They stop reacting. They stop optimizing every variable.

Instead, they focus on:

• Owning quality businesses

• Allowing time to work

• Staying invested through discomfort

• Accepting volatility as the cost of returns

Once this shift happens, investing becomes quieter and results improve.

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The engineer’s curse is not intelligence.

It is the belief that markets can be controlled.

But markets move in their own rhythm, often indifferent to logic and effort.

Those who do well do not try to dominate the market. They accept its nature with humility, adapt thoughtfully, and let time work in their favor.

Markets reward those who can live with uncertainty without trying to tame it.

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-- Pady