I Look Stupid

Since March 2020, post-COVID, we have witnessed a strong bull run. The party has been on for more than four years and continues strongly. Everyone out there made money. A lot of money than they deserve. For many it is sheer luck than a professional skillset. Unfortunately, they are ignorant of this. This ignorance has led to overconfidence and false belief. 

Making money from the stock market looked awfully simple. Just throw a dart blindly, wish to double, and get it. And this created a wrong perception in their minds. A delusion that I too, can hack it.

For the past six months, I have been observing the market euphoria and the madness of the crowd. This is not the first bull cycle and certainly not the last. History is replete with numerous such occasions. Many bull runs have come and gone. But our behavior has not changed. We human beings refuse to learn from history. Our memory is too short. And the happy hours make it even shorter. 

The bull run has its own characteristics. It prepares a perfect foundation for the next bear cycle. It drives people insane. It creates illusions in the minds of investors. It encourages greed leaving fear behind. It induces overconfidence. It makes them feel happy. It erases memories of previous bear cycles and the dreadful losses. It erodes common sensible thinking. 

And most importantly, the bull run makes me look stupid. 

1. I look stupid when I keep on reminding past market crashes when it is scaling new highs every day. 

2. I look stupid when I say you may lose money in this madness.

3. I look stupid when I point out that you are becoming too greedy.

4. I look stupid when I advise to focus on risk rather than return. 

5. I look stupid when I say you must not expect more than 12 to 15 % returns. 

6. I look stupid when I caution of probable losses and their repercussions.   

7. I look stupid when I prove facts by analyzing past data.  

8. I look stupid when I learn from history and apply it diligently. 

9. I look stupid when I advise honestly by going against the madness of the crowd.  

10. I look stupid when I avoid mimicking herd.

11. I look stupid when I say that this is irrational exuberance

12.    I look stupid when I advocate to be a long-term investor.

13.    I look stupid when I plead to stay away from the F&O trading. 

14.   I look stupid when now and then I recommend improving investing behavior.

15. I look stupid when I advise people not to get carried away by emotions like greed and fear.  

16. I look stupid when I earnestly follow what the GOATs like Warren, Charlie, and Graham have been advocating for ages. 

And yes, I know and am aware that I look stupid …